Predictive Medicine

By Amy Price PhD

Predictive medicine can change our tomorrows today. Regenerative medicine can replace artificial body parts with lab grown technologies while genetic breakthroughs can save families from generations of genetic disability. It is possible that new knowledge of human genetics and cell biology is likely to transform medical practice. Three likely scenarios could evolve:

•Genetics will lead to the classification of diseases on the basis of the underlying genetics or biochemistry, rather than by symptoms alone leading to preventive rather than crisis orientated treatments.
•Genetic information will identify people who are likely to respond to drugs, or to be harmed by them (pharmacogenetics). This is already possible with certain psychotropic drugs on an experimental level but has not trickled down into mainstream medicine.
•Genetic variation will be a new ‘susceptibility factor’, permitting monitoring and early treatment or, perhaps prevention, of an increasing proportion of common, multifactorial diseases, such as coronary heart disease, hypertension, stroke, cancer, diabetes and Alzheimer's disease. Even stress management can be amplified with knowledge of individual genotypes

It is the genetic variation susceptibility factor which is considered to be the change maker for the advent of predictive medicine. This could lead to regenerative medicine on a cellular (somatic) level or even in vitro gene manipulation (germ line therapy) which could prevent intergenerational transfer of genetic disabilities.
Predictive medicine, when it comes, will be based on a much wider use of genetic testing, at present the gap between what the healthcare system is geared up and trained to deliver and what is scientifically viable is huge. For example there are treatments approved for traumatic brain injury that are effective but most be given within a couple of hours of trauma. This can’t happen now because emergency room personnel are not adequately trained or equipped to diagnose MTBI... As with any new technology applied to health in the context of a complex delivery system, implementation is not going to be simple.

First, of course, there needs to be demand from medical personnel and the general public. Typically wide spread change will only take place after the following criteria are established:

•Demonstration of clinical effectiveness and patient safety – through statistically valid clinical trials
•Cost-effective for general use – through economic analysis of trials and other data;
•Standardization of technology, and quality control – generally through outside regulation of suppliers and laboratories;
•Allocation of resources;
•Recruitment and education and training (or retraining) for health workers – including specialists, MDs, nurses, counselors and technicians. For instance a surgeon who makes a good living performing spinal fusions and cervical repairs will need significant convincing, retraining and motivation to become an early adopter of treatment that makes the previous way of doing business obsolete.

Predictive, regenerative medicine may be the wave of the future. History teaches us that the way to greatness is to find a way to serve many. My dream is to witness a generation of scientists and medical professionals join in unity with a foundation of integrity to build a tomorrow for the patients and public who have make their careers possible.

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Materials adapted from Open University Course Materials (accessed july,2009)